Via Business Insider (Economist Charles Gave: The Euro Will Not Exist In One Year! and MAULDIN: A Greek Coup May Be What Causes Greece To Leave The Euro); John Mauldin reports in his latest newsletter, Thoughts from the Frontline – The Contagion Risk of Europe:
Will the Euro Survive?
I suggested that was a tad bearish.
“Not at all. I think it is extremely bullish. The demise of the euro and the return of national currencies will allow for proper allocation of investments and resources. It is the best thing that could happen for the markets.”
… A Greek Coup?
… time for some speculation on my part. For Greece to leave the euro, the politicians would have to make a rather serious decision. That will not happen overnight. The minute there was any speculation or a “secret” meeting of Greek leaders to discuss leaving the euro, the run on the banks would be massive and fast. It would all come down quickly.
To go back to the drachma would require a bank holiday for a week, and it would have to be a surprise move. About the only way for that to happen would be a military coup coupled with a bank holiday and promises to return to elections after the currency issue was solved. The current government does not have the votes or the power to declare a holiday and move to the drachma, or at least they don’t as I read it. Just a thought.