From 24/7WallSt. – Middle East Unrest And European Contagion:
The world faces potential shortage of crude if Middle East civil wars undermine exports.The Libyan government as already said so. Several large oil companies may cut production in the country. That is old news. What is not examined often is what happens to the financially battered nations of Greece, Ireland, and Portugal if oil prices stay higher than $100 for any long period. The cost of gasoline, heating oil, and petrochemicals will soar… the by-products of crude do fuel much of the world’s industrial production and virtually all of its transportation.
… Economic growth in these nations will be badly hurt by higher in oil prices… the US at least has a large services sector which dominates GDP. The Chinese government underwrites that price of energy to maintain economic growth. Small European nations are not as lucky…
The tipping point for [a] Portugal bailout could be the unexpected high price of oil.
Tripoli is not very far from Lisbon and the distance gets closer every day.
…a source close to the Gaddafi regime I did manage to get hold of told me the already terrible situation in Libya will get much worse. Among other things, Gaddafi has ordered security services to start sabotaging oil facilities. They will start by blowing up several oil pipelines, cutting off flow to Mediterranean ports. The sabotage, according to the insider, is meant to serve as a message to Libya’s rebellious tribes: It’s either me or chaos.
From Forfás (2006) – A Baseline Assessment of Ireland’s Oil Dependence:
In 2002, Ireland ranked 3rd highest among the EU-25 countries in terms of oil consumed per capita.
Electricity generation and transportation are the two main factors for Ireland’s high oil dependence. Ireland has relied considerably more on oil for electricity generation than
most other EU countries and, as of 2002, had the 6th most oil dependent electricity generation system of the EU-25 countries. The amount of oil used for transportation in Ireland tripled between 1972 and 2002, leaving Ireland consuming at least 50 per cent more per capita than the average of the EU-25 by the end of the period.
Taking into account the Irish economy’s relative dependence on imported oil and the relative share of oil in total Irish energy consumption, Ireland is among the most sensitive to rising oil prices and therefore among the most vulnerable to a peak oil scenario.
Read more (PDF).
We live in interesting times…
- Le Monde Diplomatique: the Spirit of ’48 (2)
- Charles Glass: the Spirit of ’48 (1)
- Science Daily – Predicting Political Hotspots: Professors’ Global Model Forecasts Civil Unrest Against Governments
- Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism – Catalyzing events or structural conditions? The Case of Ireland