From his Thoughts From The Frontline newsletter:
… what if the Irish go to the polls in a few months and vote in a new government that repudiates the current agreement (for Irish taxpayers to back Irish bank debt that is owed to German and French banks), and then when the ECB and the Germans tell them no one will buy any new debt they simply say, “Fine, we won’t pay you on anything.” Think that wouldn’t throw a wrench in the gears? Can you 100% assure me that it won’t happen?
(As an aside, I might vote for that if I were Irish. Given where they are, how much worse can it get? Here in Texas we lost all our banks in the oil and real estate crash of the ’80s. Now we are doing just fine. It would be tough, but the Irish are being asked to shoulder a massive amount of bank debt, far beyond their real means to pay. Erin Go Bragh.)